The conditions under which a Cyprus reunification process may resume remain uncertain, Vincent Morelli, a Section Research Manager in the US Congress Research Service, has said in a complementary report titled “Cyprus: Reunification Proving Elusive.”
The new report which complements a previous report issued on January 2, 2018, includes an update on the so-called “parliamentary elections” in the Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus and the Presidential elections held in the government-controlled areas.
The report notes that elections in the Republic of Cyprus in early 2018 resulted in the re-election of President Nicos Anastasiades after a second-round victory over Stavros Malas, adding that both candidates were considered more pro-negotiation than the other candidates.
“Anastasiades quickly reiterated his readiness to resume the talks under United Nations auspices and invited Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci to sit down with him informally to discuss the road ahead,” the report adds.
Concerning the “elections” in the occupied areas, Morelli writes that a four-party coalition, which includes two former Turkish Cypriot negotiators (Kudret Ozersay and Ozdil Nami) in the Cabinet, was cobbled together.
He points out that the outcome could suggest Akinci “may have a more supportive government behind his positions and efforts at the negotiating table if and when there is agreement to resume the talks.”
Morelli reiterates his previous estimate that “the last round of negotiations at Crans Montana, Switzerland, in July 2017, centered on, and eventually collapsed over, the sensitive issues of Turkish troop levels and security guarantees.”
“For some,” he notes, “these issues are not central to the question of whether both sides could actually govern together under a federal structure after such a prolonged political separation.”
As he states, “some believe that if the negotiations are to resume at all, both sides may have to agree to first resolve the internal governance issues to blunt a growing question of how close the two sides actually had come to agreeing on how to govern a unified island and to refute U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres’s 2017 assessment of the talks that ‘a breakthrough was not possible due to mistrust and a lack of political will’.”
The US analyst adds “if the domestic governance issues cannot be resolved, agreement on the security issues will be unlikely. If an agreement on governance can be reached, another international conference on security convened by the U.N. may be more successful this time around in addressing the difficult security guarantees and troops issues.”
“The differences on these issues, however, have become too high a barrier to be the starting point for the resumption of negotiations,” he says.
Noting Akincis’s” expressed intention to meet informally with President Anastasiades to try to determine exactly what Anastasiades wants to negotiate and how long it might take”, Morelli adds that Akinci has said that the negotiations cannot resume under the same U.N. parameters that existed before the collapse of the talks, as the Turkish Cypriot leader believes those parameters have yielded little return.
“It is unclear, beyond setting a deadline for the talks, whether the new ‘framework’ raised by Akinci means a simple review and public agreement on how both sides define a bizonal, bicommunal federal solution or whether Akinci has begun to shift to the idea of a ‘confederation’ approach,” the US analyst writes, adding “it is also unclear whether the recent and more frequent talk of a two-state solution is gaining credence in the north or is simply a talking point.”
Akinci and Turkish Cypriot government leaders plan to sit down with Ankara for a discussion on the path forward for the talks, presumably after Akinci’s meeting with Anastasiades. The outcome of Akinci’s discussions with Anastasiades and then with Ankara will likely determine whether, when, and how a new round of negotiations could restart. However, the fact that Ozdil Nami stepped down as negotiator and Akinci does not appear ready to appoint a new negotiator may suggest that resumption of the talks could be delayed for some time.
Furthermore, the report recalls that the United States continues to reinforce its interest in a resolution of the Cyprus issue, in part because of the growing prospects that the Eastern Mediterranean, including a united Cyprus, can play an important role in regional stability and in energy development and supply.
“The Trump Administration has pledged to support the negotiations with the goal of a settlement,” Morelli notes, adding the US administration has also expressed its support for the republic’s right to explore for energy resources in its territorial waters, an issue that has begun to heat up again in 2018, as Turkey has criticized additional energy exploration off the southern coast of Cyprus.
The report also notes that “the resumption of the dispute between the republic and Ankara over additional energy exploration in the republic’s EEZ also may become a spoiler in the resumption of the talks.”
Stating that the “Greek Cypriots, supported by the EU and others, reacted negatively to Turkey’s activity,” as well as many recalled that Anastasiades had used similar actions by Turkey in the past as reason to suspend the negotiations, the report highlights however “it is unclear if this latest incident will impact Anastasiades’s invitation to sit down with Akinci to discuss the resumption of negotiations.”
Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey invaded and occupied its northern third.